Tag: geo-politics

  • Crude Realities: A Volatile Oil Market Landscape in 2025

    Crude Realities: A Volatile Oil Market Landscape in 2025

    A Closer Look at Oil

    Oil prices are on track for weekly gains of more than 2%. Brent crude rose 0.4% to $81.58 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 0.5% to $79.09 per barrel at last check.

    Factors Driving the Bullish Case

    Despite the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, several fundamental factors continue to support higher oil prices:

    • U.S. Sanctions: Concerns persist over supply disruptions caused by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers.
    • Tightened Sanctions on Russia: Former Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has indicated support for stricter sanctions on Russia, particularly targeting oil majors, as part of efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
    • Tougher Stances on Iran and Venezuela: The Trump administration is expected to adopt a more aggressive policy toward Iran and Venezuela, which could impact global oil supplies.
    • Middle East Tensions: While progress has been made, unresolved geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose a risk of supply disruptions, adding to market uncertainty.
    • OPEC+ Production Decisions: OPEC+ has delayed production increases, further tightening supply and supporting higher prices.

    Technical Outlook

    On the technical front, crude oil is currently in the overbought zone on the daily chart and is forming a bearish weekly pattern. This suggests the potential for prices to pull back to the $75–$76 range in the near term.

    Looking Ahead

    As we move into 2025, the combination of ongoing supply constraints, shifting economic conditions, and persistent geopolitical tensions points to heightened volatility in oil prices.

  • Oil Prices End Lower Amid Cease-Fire Developments and Inventory Trends

    Oil Prices End Lower Amid Cease-Fire Developments and Inventory Trends

    Oil futures ended lower on Thursday as news of a potential cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas helped to ease some concerns over risks to global oil supplies. However, the agreement reportedly encountered delays and has not yet been implemented, contributing to market uncertainty.

    On Wednesday, oil prices had reached their highest levels since mid-August, supported by data indicating an eighth consecutive weekly decline in U.S. crude inventories. Additional upward pressure stemmed from the Biden administration’s recent sanctions aimed at curbing Russian crude exports.

    While prices briefly surpassed $80 per barrel (see our Jan 15th update), they failed to maintain this level, with Middle East geo-political developments halting further advances toward $84. Bearish sentiment now focuses on key support levels at $76 and $71.