Alpha Edge Report

Category: Market Analysis

In-depth reviews of current market conditions and trends.

Market Turmoil: How New U.S. Tariffs Shook Global Stocks & Commodities
A Turbulent Start to February: Markets React to Tariffs, Earnings, and Volatility

The financial world kicked off February in a state of heightened uncertainty. Markets were already on edge, watching economic indicators and earnings reports, but then a new shock arrived—the announcement of major U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This single decision sent ripples through equities, commodities, and even cryptocurrencies, forcing investors to reassess their strategies overnight.

But as always, the markets don’t move in a straight line. Some sectors found footing, while others plunged. Let’s break down what happened, why, and what it all means for the road ahead.

Tariffs Shake the Markets

On February 3rd, the White House made a decisive move: a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Almost immediately, panic set in. Investors feared a full-blown trade war, leading to a broad selloff in stocks and commodities.

The Dow Jones dropped 0.75%, as investors scrambled to hedge against potential economic slowdowns.

Asian markets followed suit, reflecting concerns about how these trade policies could choke supply chains and dampen global growth.

Economists warned that Mexico could tip into recession, while the U.S. might see an uptick in inflation.

Despite the negativity, there were still glimmers of optimism in the form of corporate earnings.

Earnings Reports: A Mixed Bag

While external forces like tariffs cast a shadow over the markets, earnings season continued in full swing, delivering moments of both relief and disappointment.

Winners of the Week:
1. Palantir Technologies (PLTR): This data-driven company shattered expectations, reporting strong earnings and a bright future outlook. The result? A 22% after-hours surge in its stock price.
2. Meta (META): The social media giant posted an EPS of $8.02, well above analyst expectations of $6.77.
3. Microsoft (MSFT): A strong showing with an EPS of $3.23, slightly exceeding the estimated $3.11.
Companies That Struggled:

PayPal (PYPL): Despite meeting forecasts, its cautious 2025 outlook triggered a selloff.

Merck (MRK): Stock fell over 10%, disappointing investors with lower-than-expected revenue projections.

The S&P 500 managed a slight gain (+0.6%), thanks to resilient tech stocks, while the Nasdaq advanced 1.2%—a sign that investors were still willing to bet on innovation despite macroeconomic concerns.

The Rollercoaster Ride in Commodities and Crypto

While stocks reacted to earnings and tariffs, commodities and crypto saw even wilder swings.

Oil Prices: A Tense Morning Turns into a Rebound

The oil market had its own story to tell. WTI crude initially fell to $70.67 per barrel, as China responded to U.S. tariffs with its own retaliatory measures—including a 10% tariff on U.S. crude oil. The fear? That China, the world’s largest oil importer, would cut back on purchases, weakening demand.

However, as the New York morning session progressed, oil prices bounced back. The reversal came as traders realized:

Canada and Mexico’s tariffs were temporarily paused, reducing some immediate supply fears.

OPEC+ was expected to intervene to stabilize prices.

Technical traders saw WTI dipping below key moving averages, making it an attractive buy at lower levels.

By midday, oil had erased most of its morning losses, highlighting just how quickly sentiment can shift.

Gold and Silver: The Safe Havens Shine

With uncertainty gripping the markets, investors poured into gold, pushing it to a record $2,843 per ounce. Silver also climbed, closing at $32.23 per troy ounce. These moves reflected classic “risk-off” behavior—when markets are shaky, people turn to precious metals.

Cryptocurrency: A Wild 24 Hours

The crypto market saw its usual dose of volatility.

Bitcoin (BTC) initially fell 4% to $92,000, reacting to the global market turbulence.

But later, BTC rebounded to $100,000, buoyed by the delay in Canadian and Mexican tariffs.

Ethereum (ETH) wasn’t so lucky, dropping to $2,100, reflecting investor caution.

While crypto remains a risk-on asset, its resilience after the tariff shock suggests a growing maturity in the market.

The Bigger Picture: What’s Next?

This two-day period underscored one thing: volatility is back. The markets are reacting aggressively to policy shifts, earnings surprises, and global trade developments.

What should traders and investors be watching in the coming days?
- Further Trade Policy Announcements – Will the U.S. soften its stance, or will China retaliate further?
- OPEC+ Decisions – If oil prices stay weak, will producers intervene to cut supply?
- More Earnings Reports – Key companies like Amazon and Tesla are set to release their results soon.
Despite the challenges, one thing remains clear: markets never move in a straight line. Every panic-driven selloff creates new opportunities, and every rally brings fresh risks.

For now, traders and investors should remain agile, informed, and prepared for more twists in the road ahead.

Best investment strategies during volatility Bitcoin Drops Below $100K Bitcoin Profit-Taking and Liquidations brent oil Central Bank Rate Decisions CL_F Commodity Market Analysis January 2025 CPI data crude oil day trading DeepSeek AI Market Impact Dollar strength DXY Eurozone and U.S. Treasury Yields FED Financial Market Analysis Earnings Reports 2025 Tech Stocks Performance Forex analysis geo-politics Global Market Trends 2025 GOLD Gold and Oil Price Trends How tariffs affect the stock market macro market newsletter macro markets macro report macro trading market analysis market volatility OPEC Safe-haven assets during market downturns technical analysis Tech Stock Selloff January 27th Tech stocks to watch after earnings trading strategies treasury yields Trump tariffs U.S. Dollar Weakness UK Gilts USDJPY US inflation US Oil USOIL VIX WTI XTIUSD
February 4, 2025
Global Markets in Flux: How January 27, 2025, Shaped Investor Sentiment
Market Insights: January 27, 2025

The financial markets on January 27, 2025, painted a picture of complexity and divergence. Investor sentiment remained divided, swayed by a series of macroeconomic data releases, sector-specific movements, and the anticipation of crucial central bank meetings. The mood was one of cautious recalibration, as markets responded to shifting economic indicators and sectoral pressures.

Click for concise version

A Mixed Economic Backdrop

In the eurozone, optimism bubbled up as stronger-than-expected PMI data pushed government bond yields higher. Across the Atlantic, however, the mood was more subdued. U.S. Treasury yields dipped, driven by disappointing consumer sentiment and underwhelming services PMI readings. These contrasting signals added to the global uncertainty, as markets grappled with how inflation and monetary policy might evolve in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, global equity markets broke an eight-day winning streak, weighed down by fears over inflation and tightening central bank policies. With a data-heavy week ahead—including the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions, PCE inflation data, and GDP reports—investors adopted a wait-and-see approach.

The Tech Sector Takes a Hit

The tech sector was among the hardest hit, facing pressures on multiple fronts. A major disruptor was China’s DeepSeek AI model, which intensified competitive concerns and triggered a selloff in leading tech stocks such as Nvidia and ASML. This wasn’t just a story of international competition; market analysts began to reassess AI-related spending, hinting that the industry’s future investments might become less capital-intensive.

Adding to the woes were macroeconomic pressures, as rising U.S. Treasury yields and inflation fears fueled a more cautious investment climate. Together, these factors created a perfect storm that rattled confidence in one of the market’s most prominent growth sectors.

Commodity Markets: A Tale of Contrasts

Commodity markets reflected a similarly divided narrative. Crude oil prices tumbled, slipping 4% to $74.29 as concerns over supply-demand dynamics took center stage. The drop was a sharp reversal, dampening recent optimism in the energy sector.

In contrast, precious metals offered a glimmer of resilience. Gold consolidated near historic highs of $2,790/oz earlier in the week before pulling back slightly to $2,735/oz. This performance underscored gold’s enduring appeal as a hedge against inflation and a weak U.S. dollar. Silver, however, lagged behind, with only modest gains since mid-2024, while copper traded flat amidst a neutral global growth outlook.

Cryptocurrencies: Caught in the Crossfire

The cryptocurrency market struggled to find its footing, mirroring the turmoil in tech stocks. Bitcoin, once soaring above $100,000, fell by 5% to $98,432, dragging the broader crypto market down by nearly 10%. Several factors played into this decline: the tech selloff, profit-taking by traders, and mixed reactions to President Trump’s latest crypto policies.

Though the SEC’s reversal of a controversial crypto accounting rule initially buoyed sentiment, it wasn’t enough to counterbalance concerns over regulatory uncertainty and a risk-off environment. Liquidations of over $250 million in long positions further amplified the downturn.

Forex Markets: Subtle Shifts in the Dollar

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained subdued, reflecting broader weakness as investors sought safety in bonds and the Japanese Yen, which surged by more than 1%. The Euro gained ground against the dollar, closing at 1.0490 on positive sentiment. Meanwhile, USD/JPY fell below key support levels, and GBP/USD and AUD/USD both edged higher, buoyed by technical momentum and a weaker greenback.

A Week of Uncertainty Ahead

As the markets move into the next phase, the focus remains firmly on the decisions of central banks and the release of pivotal economic data. With inflation and monetary policy at the forefront of investor concerns, the coming days are likely to provide greater clarity—or sow even more uncertainty.

The story of January 27, 2025, is not just one of numbers and indices; it’s a snapshot of a global market recalibrating to new realities. From AI-driven tech shifts to evolving monetary policies and the ever-present push-pull of commodities and currencies, the markets continue to navigate a path through complex and interconnected challenges. Investors will need to remain agile, as the next chapter unfolds.

Financial Market Summary for January 27, 2025

General Market Overview

Investor sentiment was mixed. Eurozone government bond yields rose on better-than-expected PMI data, while U.S. Treasury yields declined due to disappointing consumer sentiment and services PMI. Global stock markets saw a decline after eight days of gains, influenced by a tech selloff and upcoming central bank meetings that could shape future monetary policies.

Sector Performance
1. Technology:
U.S. tech stocks experienced pressure due to competition from China’s DeepSeek AI model.

Adjusted AI investment expectations and inflation concerns reduced investor confidence.
1. Commodities:
Oil: Prices fell by 4% to $74.29 amid supply-demand concerns.

Metals: Gold approached an all-time high of $2,790/oz but dropped to $2,735/oz. Silver and copper remained subdued due to neutral global growth outlooks.
1. Cryptocurrencies:
Bitcoin dropped 5% to $98,432 amidst broader cryptocurrency market losses of nearly 10%. Factors included tech stock declines, profit-taking, and regulatory uncertainty.

Forex Movements

DXY (Dollar Index): Flat, reflecting weakness as investors favored bonds and Yen.

EUR/USD: Strengthened to 1.0490 due to positive euro sentiment.

USD/JPY: Declined below key support levels.

GBP/USD & AUD/USD: Showed modest gains amid broader dollar weakness.

Key Drivers
1. Economic Signals: Inflation concerns and varying regional data.
2. Central Bank Speculation: Anticipation of Federal Reserve and other central bank decisions.
3. Market Adjustments: Recalibration of tech and crypto expectations.
Overall, markets reflected cautious sentiment driven by inflation, regulatory uncertainty, and a recalibration of expectations across sectors.

Best investment strategies during volatility Bitcoin Drops Below $100K Bitcoin Profit-Taking and Liquidations brent oil Central Bank Rate Decisions CL_F Commodity Market Analysis January 2025 CPI data crude oil day trading DeepSeek AI Market Impact Dollar strength DXY Eurozone and U.S. Treasury Yields FED Financial Market Analysis Earnings Reports 2025 Tech Stocks Performance Forex analysis geo-politics Global Market Trends 2025 GOLD Gold and Oil Price Trends How tariffs affect the stock market macro market newsletter macro markets macro report macro trading market analysis market volatility OPEC Safe-haven assets during market downturns technical analysis Tech Stock Selloff January 27th Tech stocks to watch after earnings trading strategies treasury yields Trump tariffs U.S. Dollar Weakness UK Gilts USDJPY US inflation US Oil USOIL VIX WTI XTIUSD
January 27, 2025
The Evolving Dynamics of the US Oil Market
The global oil market finds itself navigating uncertain waters as U.S. policies and broader geopolitical developments continue to shape its trajectory. At the center of this uncertainty is the impact of proposed tariffs by President Trump, which could fundamentally alter the supply and demand dynamics of oil in both domestic and international markets.

Click for concise version

The Tariff Effect: A Double-Edged Sword

President Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and other nations promise to shake the oil market to its core. These policies, aimed at addressing trade imbalances, may inadvertently raise U.S. gasoline prices by $0.25 to $0.75 per gallon due to retaliatory measures and increased production costs. The uncertainty surrounding these measures has already begun to influence crude oil prices, with analysts warning of fluctuations and volatility.

Globally, the ripple effect of these tariffs could create supply disruptions while dampening demand growth. WTI crude oil, trading around $75 per barrel, remains under pressure as markets grapple with these evolving challenges. While increased U.S. production could offset some of the adverse effects, the broader economic implications suggest a prolonged period of instability.

Price Trends: Mixed Signals in a Volatile Market

WTI crude oil currently hovers at $75 per barrel, constrained by competing market forces. On the one hand, easing geopolitical tensions in regions like Gaza have tempered fears of supply disruptions. On the other, growing U.S. crude stockpiles exert downward pressure.

Key price levels provide a glimpse into the market’s short-term trajectory:

Support: Prices find buyers around the $70-$72 range, a critical level that has historically signaled a rebound.

Resistance: Selling pressure is evident at the $78-$80 zone, keeping prices from breaking out.

Technically, the market remains at a crossroads. The infamous “death cross,” where the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) remains below the 200-day moving average, underscores the bearish sentiment. Yet, indicators like Bollinger Bands and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest pockets of optimism, pointing to potential bounce zones around $75-$76. The MACD, meanwhile, offers a glimmer of bullish hope, reflecting underlying momentum.

Inventory Builds and the Supply Conundrum

The U.S. oil inventory picture reveals a steady increase in crude and refined products, signaling robust supply. In the week ending January 17:

Crude stocks rose by 958,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories surged by 3.23 million barrels.

Distillate stocks increased by 1.88 million barrels.

These builds further reinforce the downward pressure on oil prices, particularly as U.S. energy policies prioritize ramping up domestic production. President Trump’s energy emergency declaration, which aims to streamline infrastructure development and ease environmental restrictions, is expected to support higher output levels in the near term.

Market Sentiment: Balancing Hope and Fear

Market analysts describe the current environment as one driven by mixed signals. The optimism stemming from potential production increases and geopolitical stability is counterbalanced by lingering fears of reduced demand growth. Trump’s tariff threats against major trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, and the European Union, add another layer of complexity, creating an atmosphere of cautious pessimism.

For traders, the near-term outlook remains challenging. Price volatility is expected to persist, with a potential dip to $71 as the market seeks liquidity before finding support for an upward trend. Our analysis recommends a cautious approach, focusing on selling zones in the $76.20-$77.70 range.

The Bigger Picture: Risks and Opportunities Ahead

As the oil market braces for more turbulence, the key risks revolve around U.S. trade policies and global economic uncertainty. Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs, coupled with the possibility of further sanctions, introduces an unpredictable element to the equation. At the same time, increased U.S. production provides a buffer, offering hope for a more balanced market in the long run.

The story of oil, as it unfolds in 2025, is one of resilience amidst adversity. With shifting policies and fluctuating prices, the market’s future hinges on the delicate interplay of domestic production, global demand, and the ever-present spectre of political intervention. For now, traders and analysts alike must navigate these complexities with caution, keeping an eye on both the risks and opportunities that lie ahead.

US Oil Market Update Summary January 23rd

Impact of Trump’s Tariffs on Oil Prices
Domestic Impact: Proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and other trade partners could increase U.S. gasoline prices by $0.25 to $0.75 per gallon due to retaliation and higher production costs. These policies create volatility in crude oil prices, affecting both supply and demand.

Global Impact: Global oil prices, particularly WTI crude (currently around $75/barrel), are pressured by uncertainty about the tariffs, leading to potential supply disruptions and dampened demand growth.

Current Price Trends
- WTI Crude Oil: Trading around $75 per barrel as of January 23.
- Key Levels:
  - Support: $70-$72 (areas of prior buying interest).
  - Resistance: $78-$80 (areas of selling pressure).
- Technical Indicators:
  - Moving Averages: The “death cross” (50-day EMA below 200-day MA) suggests bearish sentiment.
  - Bollinger Bands: Price is above the middle band, showing potential short-term bullishness.
  - RSI: Around 54-59, indicating $75-$76 as a bounce zone.
  - MACD: Daily view remains bullish.
Market Drivers
- Mixed Market Factors:
  - Positive: Easing geopolitical risks in Gaza and potential U.S. production increases under pro-drilling policies.
  - Negative: Higher U.S. crude stocks and gasoline inventories, with stock levels rising as follows:
    
    Crude: +958,000 barrels (week ended Jan 17).
    
    Gasoline: +3.23 million barrels.
    
    Distillates: +1.88 million barrels.
- Uncertainty: Lack of clarity on Trump’s tariff policies and increased U.S. oil supplies could cause near-term volatility and downward price movements.
Outlook

Short-term bearish outlook remains dominant due to mixed technical and fundamental factors. Prices may drop to $71 to seek liquidity before resuming an upward trend. Selling zones are identified at $76.20-$77.70.

Key Risks
Ongoing trade uncertainties from Trump’s policies, potential new tariffs, and global economic slowdowns could weigh heavily on oil market stability.

Thus, oil prices and market trends remain heavily influenced by U.S. trade policies, reflecting the ongoing bearish sentiment in the market.

Best investment strategies during volatility Bitcoin Drops Below $100K Bitcoin Profit-Taking and Liquidations brent oil Central Bank Rate Decisions CL_F Commodity Market Analysis January 2025 CPI data crude oil day trading DeepSeek AI Market Impact Dollar strength DXY Eurozone and U.S. Treasury Yields FED Financial Market Analysis Earnings Reports 2025 Tech Stocks Performance Forex analysis geo-politics Global Market Trends 2025 GOLD Gold and Oil Price Trends How tariffs affect the stock market macro market newsletter macro markets macro report macro trading market analysis market volatility OPEC Safe-haven assets during market downturns technical analysis Tech Stock Selloff January 27th Tech stocks to watch after earnings trading strategies treasury yields Trump tariffs U.S. Dollar Weakness UK Gilts USDJPY US inflation US Oil USOIL VIX WTI XTIUSD
January 23, 2025
Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2025
The following is a brief summary and takeaway of the EIA (Energy Information Administration) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) January publication.

Outlook for Oil Prices:
- Near-term (2025): Prices may remain stable or decline slightly after Q1 2025 due to stock builds and slower demand growth.
- Mid-term (2026): Brent oil prices are forecasted to drop significantly, driven by oversupply and reduced growth in global demand, especially from OECD countries.
Reasons for OPEC Actions:
- Stabilizing market share: OPEC+ is increasing output incrementally to meet anticipated demand growth while maintaining influence over prices.
- Balancing commitments and capacity: Despite higher output, production will likely fall short of announced targets due to internal constraints and deliberate measures to prevent excessive price declines.
- Strategic responses to competition: OPEC’s actions reflect an effort to remain competitive against non-OPEC producers like Brazil, Canada, and Guyana, which are contributing significantly to global supply growth.
Takeaway:
- Global oil production is projected to grow moderately: OPEC+ production is expected to rise annually, though not to the full extent of announced targets. Non-OPEC+ nations will also see steady increases, driven by Brazil, Canada, and Guyana.
- Market balance pressures: While output grows, Brent oil prices are expected to drop after Q1 2025 due to stock builds and reduced OECD demand growth in 2026.
- US oil output nearing a plateau: Growth in tight oil regions like the Permian Basin is barely offsetting declines elsewhere, leading to marginal increases by 2026.
January 21, 2025
US Oil Short Trade Update Jan 21st

We have just exited all shorts from the $79 region as price takes a breather and bounces off near term support at $75.10. As stated in prior posts, price breezed through our initial target of $76. Currently seeking further short entries around $77 – near term support turned resistance. Please adjust price levels for your broker accordingly.

We’ll see what price does at this point. The near term bearish case still holds, and we still see price targeting the $71 zone. However, with increased volatility, we stay vigilant and so cannot rule out a quick rip to the $79 region.

January 21, 2025
Gold Gains, Bitcoin Breaks $100K, Oil Volatility & More: Weekly Market Insights (Jan 13-19, 2025)
Market Highlights: January 13th to January 19th, 2025

The financial markets experienced a whirlwind of activity this week, marked by optimism and significant movements across various sectors. From surging cryptocurrencies to bullish trends in metals and oil, these seven days offered plenty of insights into the ever-evolving dynamics of the global economy.

A Buoyant Start for U.S. Markets

The U.S. stock market basked in optimism, with major indices—the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite—recording notable gains. This rally was fueled by softer-than-expected inflation data released on January 15, which eased concerns over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Treasury yields declined in response, injecting confidence into investors eager for growth opportunities.

Yet, amid the optimism, some analysts issued cautious notes. Despite the general consensus on a strong U.S. dollar, underlying risks such as potential tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties could challenge its dominance in the longer term.

Adding to the week’s significance, U.S. financial markets prepared for a closure on January 20 in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day and the presidential inauguration, setting the stage for a more eventful week ahead.

Oil: A Tale of Volatility

The oil market showcased its characteristic unpredictability. Brent crude prices initially surged past $80 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions. Stringent U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s oil industry fueled concerns over supply disruptions, pushing prices to four-month highs early in the week.

However, the tide shifted midweek. Reports that Yemen’s Houthi militia would halt attacks on ships in the Red Sea alleviated some supply fears, leading to a pullback in prices. By January 17, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted a longer-term decline in crude prices, citing expectations of global production outpacing demand by mid-2025. This tempered the initial bullish sentiment, leaving the oil market in a state of flux.

Metals Shine Bright

The metals market enjoyed a strong showing, aided by macroeconomic shifts and robust regional demand.
- Gold: A haven for investors, gold prices climbed steadily, rising from $2,663.80 per ounce on January 13 to $2,703.38 by January 19—a 1.5% increase. Softer U.S. inflation data reignited expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, weakening the U.S. dollar and boosting gold’s appeal. Demand dynamics added to the upward momentum, with Chinese buyers actively purchasing ahead of the Lunar New Year, while Indian markets saw discounts widen amid cautious buying.
- Silver: Silver broke free from its downtrend, climbing above the key $30.66 per troy ounce level. This bullish breakout signaled the possibility of further gains, with the next target being the mid-November high of $31.53.
- Copper: Copper prices also rallied, breaking through the $4.26 to $4.33 resistance zone. This technical breakout suggests a bullish trend reversal, with the November peak of $4.49 now within reach. The previous resistance zone is expected to act as a support level going forward.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Leads the Charge

The cryptocurrency market remained electrified, with Bitcoin stealing the spotlight. The flagship digital asset surged by over 10%, confidently trading above $100,000—a psychological milestone. This rally was underpinned by growing optimism about crypto-friendly policies anticipated from the incoming Trump administration, as well as the launch of the $TRUMP coin, which saw an enthusiastic reception from investors.

Ethereum followed suit, rising 3.89% to $3,403.84, reflecting the broader positive sentiment in the crypto space. The narrative of digital assets as a key pillar of the financial future continues to gain traction, with participants positioning themselves for potential regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.

Forex Majors: The Dollar’s Resilience

In the forex market, the U.S. dollar maintained its strength, though not without challenges. The Dollar Index (DXY) peaked at 110.176 before retracing slightly, closing near 109.50. A bullish weekly close pointed to further upside potential, with the 110.50 resistance level in sight.
- EUR/USD: The euro struggled against the dollar, hitting its lowest levels since September 2023. The pair consolidated toward the end of the week, trading between a support level of 1.0200 and resistance at 1.0350.
- GBP/USD: The British pound tested the critical 1.2200 support level, ultimately closing below it. Analysts warned that this could open the door to further downside, with 1.2070 as the next target.
- AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened, testing the 14-day Exponential Moving Average at 0.6214. A fall toward 0.6000 remains a possibility, reflecting broader weakness in the commodity-linked currency.
- USD/JPY: The Japanese yen stood out as the exception, strengthening against the dollar. Expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike drove USD/JPY to 157.98, showcasing the yen’s potential for a more hawkish trajectory.
Global Trends: ETFs Poised for Growth

Beyond the week’s market movements, a notable development came from the global asset management industry. Major players like JPMorgan Asset Management, Fidelity International, and Janus Henderson announced plans to launch new active exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the UK and Europe. With the market expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, this strategic shift signals increased focus on innovation and adaptability in investment products.

The Week in Retrospect

January 13th to 19th, 2025, was a week of contrasts. Optimism reigned in equities and cryptocurrencies, while metals demonstrated resilience amidst a shifting macroeconomic environment. Oil, however, showcased its volatile nature, rising on geopolitical tensions before retreating on supply assurances and longer-term bearish forecasts.

As we move forward, the interplay of inflation data, policy expectations, and geopolitical developments will remain critical in shaping the outlook for financial markets. For now, investors brace themselves for the next chapter in this dynamic and unpredictable landscape.
January 19, 2025
Crude Realities: A Volatile Oil Market Landscape in 2025
A Closer Look at Oil

Oil prices are on track for weekly gains of more than 2%. Brent crude rose 0.4% to $81.58 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 0.5% to $79.09 per barrel at last check.

Factors Driving the Bullish Case

Despite the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, several fundamental factors continue to support higher oil prices:
- U.S. Sanctions: Concerns persist over supply disruptions caused by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers.
- Tightened Sanctions on Russia: Former Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has indicated support for stricter sanctions on Russia, particularly targeting oil majors, as part of efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
- Tougher Stances on Iran and Venezuela: The Trump administration is expected to adopt a more aggressive policy toward Iran and Venezuela, which could impact global oil supplies.
- Middle East Tensions: While progress has been made, unresolved geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose a risk of supply disruptions, adding to market uncertainty.
- OPEC+ Production Decisions: OPEC+ has delayed production increases, further tightening supply and supporting higher prices.
Technical Outlook

On the technical front, crude oil is currently in the overbought zone on the daily chart and is forming a bearish weekly pattern. This suggests the potential for prices to pull back to the $75–$76 range in the near term.

Looking Ahead

As we move into 2025, the combination of ongoing supply constraints, shifting economic conditions, and persistent geopolitical tensions points to heightened volatility in oil prices.
January 17, 2025
US OIL Update January 15th, 2025

With today’s Core CPI printing at 0.2%, cooler than expected, markets may interpret this as the FED pausing rate hikes for now. However, is this enough to dampen the prevailing narrative and curb discussions of further rate increases? While it doesn’t provide a clear green light for a “risk-on” environment, markets reacted positively. Stocks soared, and banks reported strong earnings.

US oil prices followed suit, with the weekly downtrend channel resistance currently being tested. Near-term factors, as outlined in our Alpha Edge Report (Jan 13), continue to support the daily bullish case. Notably, oil remains within a monthly consolidation triangle, with key support at $66. Both the monthly and weekly RSI momentum indicators are bullish. Price has already closed above the daily resistance level of $78 on the 4H chart. A daily close above this level would shift the focus to the next target of $80. We remain bullish on oil in both the near and mid-term outlooks.

Trading Strategy

Ideally, we would prefer a retracement to the low $75 range, as entering long positions from $76–$78 offers limited value. Having exited our previous long trade from $68 to $75, we remain sidelined for now. Our next entry will be contingent on a strong bullish daily close above $79.24.

Key levels to watch:

For bulls: $80, $84, $85, and $88.

For bears: $76 and further down to $71.

January 15, 2025
Market Volatility Increases Pre Inflation Data
A Market on Edge

Following the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on January 10, 2025, financial market sentiment has shifted notably. U.S. Treasury yields surged as investors reacted to stronger-than-expected job growth, raising concerns about persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. In the UK, investor sentiment turned negative due to rising gilt yields linked to specific fiscal challenges and inflationary pressures from recent budget measures. Overall, markets are bracing for potential volatility as economic data influences central bank strategies amid a backdrop of heightened uncertainty.

Post-NFPs on January 10, 2025, the stock market reacted negatively despite positive job growth data. Investors reassessed the likelihood of central bank rate cuts, leading to higher government bond yields, particularly affecting high-valuation sectors like technology. The Nasdaq fell by 2.3%, while defensive sectors like utilities performed better. Overall, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 also declined by 1.9% each, reflecting a cautious outlook as markets adjusted to the implications of the labor report on monetary policy expectations.

As of January 13, 2025, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 19.54, having increased by 8.1% from the previous day. This rise indicates heightened market volatility expectations, often referred to as the “fear gauge.” A VIX level above 20 typically suggests increased uncertainty among investors regarding future market movements. Therefore, the current VIX reading indicates a notable level of anticipated volatility in the market today.

Sector Spotlight: Oil, Gold, and Crypto

After the January 10th Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which indicated a stronger-than-expected job growth of 256,000, sectors like oil, gold, and crypto experienced notable movements:
- Oil: Prices surged, reaching four-month highs due to increased demand and inflation concerns. Some market commentators noted that this positive trend was supported by expectations of economic growth in China and rising winter fuel demand. However, US pressure on Iran remains a dominant narrative, translating to a near-term bullish case for oil.
- Gold: The performance of gold remained buoyant but contained within its weekly consolidation triangle, acting as a weak hedge against oil market fluctuations.
- Crypto (Bitcoin): We continue to see Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe haven. Thursday’s sell-off and muted bounce post-NFP kept Bitcoin within its weekly consolidation range of 91,000 – 104,000.
Forex Performance: A Dollar Surge

Following the January 10th NFP report, the forex markets reacted significantly:
- US Dollar (DXY): The DXY surged to its highest level since November 2022, nearing 110.00, driven by strong job growth and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2025.
- EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar, approaching multi-year lows and parity as the dollar’s strength overshadowed any positive domestic data from Europe.
- USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair saw modest gains, reflecting expectations of potential policy shifts from the Bank of Japan due to strong US labor market data.
Looking Ahead: CPI Inflation Data

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about market performance in the coming days, particularly with the upcoming CPI inflation data. Expectations are for modest inflation, with forecasts suggesting a CPI of around 2.4% for 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024.

The strong labor market could bolster the US dollar further, impacting forex rates like EUR/USD and USD/JPY negatively. In the stock market, analysts predict continued gains but at a slower pace than in 2024, with a projected S&P 500 target of 6,500, reflecting a roughly 9% increase. However, potential inflationary pressures from incoming policies could introduce volatility.

Trading Strategies

Indices
- SPX Weekly up-trend still intact. Price is currently at dynamic support with the 25 EMA and mid Bollinger Band circa 5827. If the CPI print comes in unfavourably, we see price targeting support around 5650 just off the 50 EMA. Near term BEARISH. Long term BULLISH.
- NASDAQ Long term up trend intact as long as we remain above 18000. As last week’s market moves continue we see price holding at dynamic support around 26800 — 50 EMA and mid Bollinger Band. However divergence on the weekly RSI is more prominent. Underlining the near term bearish case as momentum fades. Near term BEARISH. Long term BULLISH.
Commodities
- US OIL Weekly down trend intact. But previously mentioned near term factors maintain the daily bullish case. Note OIL is still contained within a monthly consolidation triangle with support at 66. Monthly and weekly RSI momentum is bullish. Price has already closed above daily resistance at 78 on the 4H chart. A daily close above this level brings the next target of 80 in focus. We remain BULLISH on OIL near term and mid term.
- Gold: As already mentioned, GOLD’s performance remains buoyant, but contained within its weekly consolidation triangle. Near term support is 2600 and resistance at 2730. Price is at multi-year highs we see it remaining BULLISH long term with continued market uncertainty and volatility. Near term RANGE BOUND as price navigates this weekly consolidation.
- Crypto (Bitcoin): Again, Thursday’s sell off and muted bounce post NFPs, kept BItcoin within its weekly consolidation range of 91,000 – 104,000. We have been monitoring this consolidation pattern in BTC and altcoins since mid-December. Failure to maintain 104,000 and strong RSI divergence have kept us bearish. Next targets for BTC is 80,000. Above the last consolidation and dynamic supports 50 EMA and mid Bollinger. Near term BEARISH. Long term BULLISH.
Forex
- US Dollar (DXY): Dollar holla. As noted in our post NFP summary above, USD remains strong across the board. Price and RSI momentum are bullish on all charts including weekly and monthly with healthy pullbacks. Price is on course for all time highs at 114. Near term BULLISH. Long Term BULLISH.
- EUR/USD: Again multi-year lows and parity in sight with USD strength. Near term BEARISH. Long term BEARISH.
- USD/JPY: The pair is at multi-year highs and the only negative we see is possible near term consolidation as price looks to attack at high 161s. Weekly range. Support 140.50 to 160 resistance. So as RSI momentum drops, buy any dips. Near term RANGE. Long term BULLISH.
January 13, 2025
Market Caution Amid Tech Selloff, Inflation Fears & Oil Volatility January 8, 2025

Market Pulse: Navigating the Turbulence of January 8, 2025

As the financial markets kicked off the second week of 2025, the mood among investors could best be described as cautious. The year had barely begun, yet volatility seemed to have already made itself at home. The source of the jitters? A sharp selloff in the tech sector, lingering inflation fears, and rising Treasury yields.

On this particular day, futures for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 edged lower, reflecting investor anxiety. With the Federal Reserve signaling a 95% likelihood of maintaining its current rate policies, hopes for a near-term pivot were all but extinguished. Treasury yields, climbing past 4.7%, underscored persistent inflation concerns and left traders bracing for another rocky session. Adding to the suspense, critical job market reports and the release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes were on the day’s agenda.

Tech Takes a Hit

The tech-heavy Nasdaq bore the brunt of investor unease on January 7. A strong ISM services index reading hinted at continued economic expansion and, alarmingly, rising prices. For inflation-wary investors, this spelled trouble. Concerns swirled that the Federal Reserve might maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates, keeping borrowing costs elevated and dampening growth.

Big names in tech took a beating. Nvidia plummeted 6.2%, while Tesla slid 4%. These declines dragged the Nasdaq down nearly 2%, sending ripples across the broader market. The selloff served as a stark reminder that even giants are not immune to the broader economic narrative.

Commodities Hold Their Ground

While the tech sector stumbled, commodities painted a more nuanced picture.

Oil: Early in the week, crude prices enjoyed a modest rally, buoyed by optimism surrounding economic recovery in the U.S. and China. Brent crude reached $75.48 per barrel, and WTI climbed to $72.44. Supply constraints from OPEC and weather disruptions in key production regions lent additional support. But the tide turned on January 7. A strengthening U.S. dollar, coupled with concerns about oversupply from non-OPEC producers, reversed earlier gains. Bearish inventory data added fuel to the fire, sending crude prices lower.

Metals: Gold shone brightly amid the uncertainty, with prices surging to $2,650 per ounce. The metal’s safe-haven appeal drew strong demand from investors seeking shelter from inflation and economic volatility. Copper and aluminum held steady, supported by favorable financing conditions for gold-related projects.

Cryptocurrency: Despite some volatility, the crypto market proved its resilience, delivering a generally positive performance. Bitcoin and Ethereum led the charge, buoyed by expectations of lower interest rates and optimism around Bitcoin ETFs. Whilst some may view this asset class as an inflation hedge, we still view the sector as highly speculative.

What’s Driving Oil Prices?

The rise and fall of oil prices during this period illustrate how complex and interconnected the energy market can be. Early optimism was driven by strong economic data from the U.S. and China, which suggested higher energy demand as their economies recovered. OPEC’s production cuts further tightened supply, while geopolitical tensions and weather-related disruptions added risk premiums to prices.

Yet, the market’s mood shifted as quickly as a change in the wind. On January 7, oil prices stumbled in response to a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns over rising supply. Reports of increased production from the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries introduced the specter of oversupply, while weaker economic data from Germany hinted at slower demand growth. By the end of the day, the once-promising rally had turned into a selloff.

The Road Ahead

Looking forward, analysts are sounding a note of caution. While U.S. equities have shown resilience in the face of elevated valuations, the road ahead is far from smooth. Inflation remains a pressing concern, and any hints of further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve could unsettle markets.

Sectoral dispersion will likely define the coming days, with some areas offering opportunities while others falter. Technology, in particular, will remain a focal point, as investors weigh the sector’s growth potential against the broader economic backdrop.

For commodities, the balance between supply constraints and demand optimism will continue to shape the narrative. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency traders will keep a close eye on regulatory developments and market sentiment, hoping for another leg up in this volatile space.

In a market defined by uncertainty, staying informed and adaptable is more important than ever. As the trading year unfolds, one thing is clear: 2025 is shaping up to be anything but predictable.

To navigate these unpredictable waters effectively, make sure you’re equipped with the latest insights and analysis. Subscribe to our blog today for expert commentary, market updates, and strategies that can help you stay ahead of the curve. Don’t miss out on valuable information that could make all the difference in your trading and journey!

Visit our Instagram for the audio summary.

January 8, 2025